Present Value and Discounting

By Christopher Skerritt, M.Ed., MBA, Chief of Economic Services · Published · Reviewed

Present value converts a projected stream of future losses into the single sum that, invested today at a stated rate, would replace those losses as they come due. The economist selects a discount rate matched to the horizon and to the kind of stream being valued, states how it interacts with the growth rate applied to the loss stream, and shows the arithmetic so the result can be reproduced.

When it is used

Every damages report that projects losses beyond the trial date reduces them to present value: future lost earnings, lost household services, the cost of a life care plan, lost financial support in a wrongful death claim, and future lost profits. The step is required because an award is paid once, in present dollars, while the losses it replaces would have been received over many years.

Step-by-step

  1. Build the year-by-year nominal loss stream from the underlying projection (earnings, benefits, services, care costs, or profits) over the horizon the analysis supports
  2. For a personal-loss stream (earnings, fringe benefits, household services, lost support, and care costs), select a discount rate tied to yields on low-risk instruments whose maturities match the horizon, because the award replaces amounts the person would have received with reasonable certainty, and state the source and the date of the yield data
  3. For a commercial lost-profits stream, select a rate that reflects the risk of the projected profits, built up from a low-risk base rate plus the equity, size, and company-specific premia the published cost-of-capital data support, or drawn from the company's weighted average cost of capital, so that a projection carrying business risk is not valued as if it were certain, and state the basis for the rate
  4. State the growth rate already applied to the stream and confirm that growth and discount assumptions were drawn on a consistent basis, either both nominal or both real
  5. Discount each year's loss back to the valuation date and sum the results, keeping past losses (carried forward to the trial date) separate from future losses (discounted back to it)
  6. Report the present value alongside the undiscounted total and a sensitivity table showing the result across a reasonable range of rates
  7. Apply any convention the venue imposes, such as a total-offset rule or a rate fixed by the court, and say so in the report

Data sources

Limitations

The present value of a long stream is sensitive to the spread between the growth and discount rates, and small changes compound over decades. A rate chosen from a short window of unusual market conditions can overstate or understate the result, so the report should say which period the rates were drawn from and why. Present value does not resolve disputes about the underlying stream: if the earnings projection or the worklife horizon is wrong, discounting a wrong stream correctly still yields a wrong number. The rate convention also has to match the stream: a low-risk yield applied to a commercial lost-profits projection treats an uncertain profit stream as if it were as certain as wages and overstates the loss, while a risk-adjusted rate applied to a personal earnings stream understates it, so the report says which convention it follows and why.

Admissibility

Reduction of future losses to present value is a long-accepted step in federal and state courts, and the Supreme Court has treated the choice among discounting approaches as a matter for the trier of fact provided the economist explains the assumptions. Challenges usually target inputs rather than the method: an unexplained rate, a growth rate inconsistent with the discount rate, or a failure to follow a venue's stated convention. Some jurisdictions direct a total-offset approach by case law, under which growth and discounting are assumed to cancel; the net versus gross discount rate comparison explains the alternatives.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does a lower discount rate produce a larger present value?

A lower rate assumes the award will earn less when invested, so a larger sum is needed today to fund the same future losses. The relationship is mechanical, which is why the source and the period of the rate matter more than the rate itself.

Is the discount rate the same for lost earnings and for future medical costs?

Within a personal-loss claim, yes: the discount rate reflects the return on the safely invested award and does not change between the earnings, household services, and medical cost streams. What changes is the growth rate applied to each stream, since wages, household replacement costs, and medical costs grow at different rates, so the net rate differs by category even when the discount rate is the same. A commercial lost-profits stream is the exception: it is discounted at a rate that reflects the risk of the projected profits rather than at the low-risk yield.

Does the economist discount past losses?

Discounting runs from the trial date forward only. Losses that accrued between the event and trial are tabulated year by year in the dollars of each year, and where the governing framework allows, prejudgment interest carries them forward to the trial date on a separate line, so the two adjustments are never confused.

Services that use this method

References

Request a consultation on Present Value and Discounting or call (201) 343-0700. Plaintiff and defense counsel.